11. Logistic analysis of economic cycles

Andžela Mialik1, Virgilijus Sakalauskas2, Kęstutis Driaunys3, Stasys Girdzijauskas4

Department of Informatics, Kaunas Faculty of Humanities, Vilnius University,
Muitines str. 8, LT-44280, Kaunas, Lithuania

1Corresponding author

E-mail: 1andzelina.m@gmail.com, 2virgilijus.sakalauskas@khf.vu.lt, 3kestutis.driaunys@khf.vu.lt, 4stasys.girdzijauskas@khf.vu.lt

(Received 16 July 2015; received in revised form 17 August 2015; accepted 24 August 2015)

Abstract. Dynamic processes, vibrations and fluctuations are the phenomena which usually accompany the development of various populations. Economic populations are no exception: capital, investments, GDP, and others. Their dynamics is connected with rather sharp fluctuations – rise and decline. Although the regularity of these fluctuations is not strictly determined, they are nevertheless considered to be periodical. The frequency of such fluctuations might be measured by nano or microhertz. It is becoming clear that basic principles of the theory of fluctuations might be applied to the research of the economic cycles. Up until today no one has provided an explanation as to why the development of economics is cyclic. While researching the peculiarities of the economic development (especially the growth phases), these reasons have been enumerated – the new economic laws have been discovered while analysing the phenomenon of financial saturation. It appears that economics is experiencing the revival (the so-called “economic resonance” or a boom) due to the saturation of the economic area (the markets) with the invested capital. Seeking the stability of the economic development, it is important to reorient the research methods from compound to simple percentage (interest). The alteration of the research instruments requires their constant updating and refinement, it also permits to achieve higher results. This article presents the economic logistic model of growth, displays its universality and potential to increase the economic harmony. The example of data analysis provided in the article visualizes the growth process under investigation.

Keywords: economic cycles, interest, logistic growth, logistical analysis, modelling, capacity, interval logistic model, fuzzy.

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Cite this article

Mialik Andžela, Sakalauskas Virgilijus, Driaunys Kęstutis, Girdzijauskas Stasys Logistic analysis of economic cycles. Mathematical Models in Engineering, Vol. 1, Issue 2, 2015, p. 83‑95.

 

Mathematical Models in Engineering. December 2015, Volume 1, Issue 2

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